New Delhi: The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region faces an elevated threat of flash floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) this monsoon, according to a report released on Wednesday by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
The intergovernmental organisation warned that rainfall from June to September is expected to be significantly above normal across the HKH range, increasing the likelihood of water-related disasters. Additionally, temperatures are projected to rise up to 2°C above seasonal averages, compounding the region’s vulnerability.
“Forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies point to above-normal precipitation during the monsoon, which poses serious risks of devastating flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas,” the report stated.
The rise in temperature is accelerating glacier and snowmelt, potentially leading to surging river levels and increased chances of GLOFs. Warmer conditions are also diminishing snow accumulation, which threatens the long-term water supply for millions living downstream.
Rainfall during the monsoon season is crucial for refilling the region’s river systems, which sustain nearly two billion people. However, the intensifying impacts of climate change are making the monsoon increasingly dangerous. Over 72% of all floods in the HKH between 1980 and 2024 occurred during the monsoon months, ICIMOD noted.
Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior advisor at ICIMOD, emphasized that the entire HKH is likely to experience a hotter-than-usual monsoon, with increased rainfall in key areas. “These conditions heighten the risks of floods, landslides, and debris flows, and also affect the long-term stability of glaciers and permafrost,” he said.
He added that reduced rainfall in drought-prone areas like Afghanistan could worsen food and water insecurity in a region already grappling with high levels of malnutrition.
Saswata Sanyal, who leads ICIMOD’s disaster risk reduction efforts, stressed the urgent need for robust early warning systems and stronger government and donor support to bolster disaster preparedness. “With such high exposure and vulnerability, the region cannot afford to delay large-scale adoption of impact-based warning systems,” he said.
