New Delhi: Tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply following reports that Iran is considering closing the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz after the United States conducted airstrikes on three of its nuclear facilities. The Strait, a narrow but critical waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, is responsible for the transit of nearly 20 million barrels of oil daily—accounting for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply. At just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, and with shipping lanes only 3 kilometers wide in each direction, the Strait remains one of the world’s most vulnerable chokepoints.
Iran, located on the northern side of the strait, has previously threatened to block the route during heightened tensions. This latest warning has raised fresh concerns of a possible disruption to global energy supplies, especially from major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait, all of whom rely on this corridor. While the West was once the most exposed to such disruptions, today the stakes are higher for Asia, particularly energy-dependent economies like India and China.
For India, which imports around 5.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, the Strait of Hormuz serves as a conduit for about 1.5 to 2 million barrels. However, Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has reassured the public that India is prepared to manage any fallout. He said the country has been closely monitoring the situation for the past two weeks and emphasized that, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has significantly diversified its oil import sources in recent years. As a result, a considerable portion of India’s current oil supplies now comes from countries that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, such as Russia, the United States, Brazil, and African nations.
The Minister added that India’s three major oil marketing companies—Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum—have adequate stocks to meet domestic demand for several weeks and continue to receive shipments through multiple routes. The government has also initiated behind-the-scenes negotiations with other countries to fill any potential supply gaps. While the immediate supply outlook remains stable, experts warn that oil prices could rise sharply in the short term, possibly reaching $80 per barrel, due to uncertainty and risk in the region.
India, which meets approximately 85 percent of its crude oil requirements through imports, is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in global oil prices. A surge in prices not only raises the country’s import bill but also fuels inflation, weakens the rupee, and hampers economic growth. In anticipation of such challenges, India has developed strategic petroleum reserves that act as a safety net during emergencies. The country’s storage infrastructure includes facilities at Pudur (2.25 million metric tonnes), Visakhapatnam (1.33 MMT), and Mangalore (1.5 MMT), with another reserve under construction in Chandikhol. These reserves are designed to be tapped when global oil supply chains are disrupted or prices surge unexpectedly.
On the export front, the impact is expected to be minimal. Over 90 percent of India’s outbound shipments to key markets like the US and Europe already take alternative routes via the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Only 5 to 6 percent of Indian trade relies on the Red Sea route, which may face limited disruption if tensions spread. Exporters who recently met with the government have expressed confidence that India’s trade will not be significantly affected, although they acknowledged that prolonged instability in the region could heighten uncertainty.
In conclusion, while Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has reignited fears of global energy insecurity, India appears well-positioned to withstand short-term disruptions. With diversified oil sourcing, strong reserves, and proactive monitoring by the government, India is unlikely to face an immediate fuel crisis. However, continued escalation in the Middle East remains a risk factor for global oil markets, and prolonged conflict could have wider economic repercussions.
