New Delhi: Pakistan is grappling with an escalating water crisis after India put the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance on April 23, resulting in a sharp 20% drop in river flows across its three key regions — Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The decline in water availability is having an immediate and severe impact on Pakistan’s Kharif cropping season, which runs from June to September.
According to official data accessed by CNN-News18, Punjab’s river flow on June 20 was recorded at 1,10,500 cusecs, down from 1,30,800 cusecs a year ago — a reduction of 20%. In Sindh, the water flow dropped from 1,70,000 cusecs to 1,33,000 cusecs, and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, it declined from 2,900 to 2,600 cusecs compared to the same date last year.
The drying rivers have left Pakistan heavily dependent on the upcoming monsoon to avoid a full-blown agricultural and drinking water crisis. The situation was already forecasted to worsen when Pakistan predicted a 21% shortage in water availability due to India’s recent moves — a prediction that is now being confirmed by ground data.
Compounding Islamabad’s concerns is India’s long-term plan to link the waters of the Indus and Chenab rivers with the Beas, using a 160-km tunnel to divert water deep into the Indian mainland towards Gangasagar. Experts warn this could further strain the downstream water supply to Pakistan and accelerate regional water stress.
In a statement last month, Pakistan described the situation as a “crisis created by Indian short supplies in the Chenab River”, cautioning that this would critically affect water availability in the current Kharif season. So far, Pakistan has sent four diplomatic communications urging India to reconsider the suspension of the treaty and resume water sharing, but India has remained firm on its position.
New Delhi has repeatedly reiterated that the Indus Waters Treaty will remain suspended indefinitely. Speaking at a rally in Gujarat on May 27, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “Shouldn’t the people of India get their rightful share of water? I haven’t done much yet—we’ve only opened the dam slightly and started cleaning. They’re terrified there, and we’ve just begun.” He also criticized the treaty’s historical concessions, particularly the 60-year ban on desilting and cleaning downstream dams in Jammu and Kashmir, calling it detrimental to India’s interests.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, was designed to divide the six major rivers of the Indus system between India and Pakistan. India was given control over the eastern rivers — Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej, while Pakistan received the western rivers — Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. The treaty also allowed for limited use of the other side’s rivers for non-consumptive purposes such as run-of-the-river hydropower projects.
Prime Minister Modi also addressed the younger generation, urging them to understand the treaty’s implications. “If you go into the details of the Indus Waters Treaty, you’ll be shocked. The country was deprived of cleaning its own dams, and water that should have filled reservoirs 100% has dwindled to 2-3%,” he said.
As Pakistan anxiously awaits the monsoon to replenish its rivers, the fallout from India’s decision to put the treaty on hold may be just the beginning of a larger geopolitical and environmental confrontation. With no signs of diplomatic breakthrough and infrastructure projects underway to reroute water, the next few months will be critical for water-dependent sectors across both nations.
