New Delhi: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s real GDP growth at 6.5 percent for the fiscal year 2025-26, highlighting that the country is set to remain the fastest-growing major economy during this period.
In its 2024-25 Annual Report released on Thursday, the RBI emphasized that India’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, robust financial sector, and commitment to sustainable growth will drive this expansion. Despite challenges such as global financial market volatility, geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, supply chain disruptions, and climate-related uncertainties, the growth outlook remains optimistic with risks evenly balanced.
The RBI report pointed to several key factors underpinning this positive forecast, including a revival in consumption demand, continued government emphasis on capital expenditure, fiscal consolidation efforts, healthy balance sheets across banks and corporations, easing financial conditions, resilience in the services sector, and strengthening consumer and business confidence.
Agriculture is expected to perform well in FY 2025-26, buoyed by an anticipated above-normal southwest monsoon and productivity-enhancing government policies announced in the Union Budget 2025-26. The manufacturing sector is also set for further growth, supported by rising domestic demand, increased capacity utilization, strong corporate and bank finances, and ongoing government initiatives such as the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and the National Manufacturing Mission, both aimed at boosting the ‘Make in India’ initiative.
Forward-looking surveys conducted by the RBI also reflect optimism for both manufacturing and services sectors in the coming fiscal year.
The report noted that the Indian economy demonstrated resilience in FY 2024-25 despite global uncertainties, supported by proactive policy measures and sound fundamentals. Financial markets remained stable amid global headwinds, while the central government maintained fiscal discipline through buoyant tax revenues and prudent spending. On the external front, a merchandise trade deficit was balanced by strong services exports and steady remittance inflows, keeping the current account deficit (CAD) at sustainable levels.
Overall, the RBI’s outlook reaffirms India’s position as a leading growth engine on the global stage for the upcoming fiscal year.
