NEW DELHI: China’s plan to build the world’s largest hydropower project, the Medog Hydropower Station, on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, has triggered deep concerns in India over the potential strategic and environmental consequences. Despite Beijing’s reassurances, experts and Indian authorities warn that the dam could have far-reaching implications for India’s water security and regional stability.
The approval for the dam project came on December 25, 2024, and once completed, it is expected to generate a staggering 60,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity—surpassing the Three Gorges Dam in both size and output.
The proposed dam will be built at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Medog County, Tibet, just before the river enters Indian territory and becomes the Brahmaputra. It is a strategically sensitive location, and any control over the river’s flow effectively gives China upstream power over water that millions in India depend on for drinking, irrigation, and livelihood.
Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu called the project an “existential threat”, warning that China could use the dam as a “water bomb”, potentially triggering sudden floods or severe water shortages in Arunachal Pradesh and other northeastern states.
Experts have flagged several environmental risks associated with the mega-dam project:
• The region is seismically unstable, increasing the risk of landslides and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
• Damming the river could block sediment flow, crucial for soil fertility in downstream regions of India.
• It could disrupt ecosystems, leading to deforestation, biodiversity loss, and long-term environmental degradation.
• The absence of any public environmental impact report from China adds to downstream countries’ anxieties.
From a strategic standpoint, the biggest fear is China’s potential weaponisation of water. In times of conflict or diplomatic tension, Beijing could manipulate the river’s flow, causing harm to India’s population and economy.
Adding to India’s vulnerability is the fact that China is not bound by any legally enforceable treaty on transboundary rivers with India. Although the two nations have signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) in the past regarding hydrological data sharing, the most recent MoU expired on June 5, 2023, and has not been renewed. The Ministry of Jal Shakti confirmed that no hydrological data or information on hydro structures has been shared since 2022.
In response, India is pursuing its own defensive water infrastructure strategy. The Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, a proposed 10 GW hydropower plant in Arunachal Pradesh, is designed to help manage sudden water flow changes caused by potential upstream interventions by China.
Chief Minister Pema Khandu highlighted the project’s significance, saying, “This initiative will act as a buffer and provide water security for our people. It is a defensive mechanism against any adverse actions from upstream.”
The project aims to function both as a power generation hub and as a reservoir to regulate water flow, mitigating the risks of floods or droughts in the region.
China’s move to build the Medog Dam is not just about energy—it’s also about control and leverage. In a world where water is becoming an increasingly strategic resource, the absence of a legally binding water-sharing agreement between India and China makes the situation even more precarious.
As India plans its response through infrastructure and diplomacy, the unfolding situation underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive water governance framework in the region—one that balances development with environmental sustainability and geopolitical stability.
