The recent events in Bangladesh have thrown India into a complex diplomatic dilemma. With the ousting of Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister, India is facing significant challenges and uncertainties in its relations with its neighbouring country.
The shocking turn of events leading to Sheikh Hasina’s ouster as Bangladesh’s Prime Minister has put India in an extremely tricky situation.
Sheikh Hasina, who had been in power since 2009, was a crucial ally for India, and her tenure witnessed a strengthening of ties between the two nations.
The close relationship between India and Bangladesh was evident in the progress made in areas such as road and rail connectivity, border management, and defence cooperation. However, with her removal from power, India now has to navigate its engagement with the new leadership in Bangladesh.
The formation of an interim government and the potential roles of parties such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami, both of which have strained relations with India, add further complexity to the situation.
One of the major concerns for India is the possibility of a refugee influx from Bangladesh, particularly in light of reports of violence against minorities.
The porous 4,096-km border between India and Bangladesh presents a challenge, especially considering the historical issue of refugees from Bangladesh settling in India, particularly in the Northeast and West Bengal. In response to these developments, the Border Security Force (BSF) has been placed on high alert, and assurances have been made by Union Home Minister Amit Shah regarding preventing infiltration.
Furthermore, the broader regional implications of the crisis in Bangladesh cannot be overlooked. The close ties between the Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan are a cause for concern for India, which is closely monitoring the unfolding events in Dhaka.
India’s response to the crisis in Bangladesh will not only shape its relations with its neighbour but also have broader geopolitical implications. The need to balance strategic interests with humanitarian concerns and to navigate the complexities of internal politics in Bangladesh poses a significant diplomatic challenge for India.
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government deliberates on its approach to the Bangladesh crisis, it faces the delicate task of safeguarding its national interests while also addressing humanitarian and regional stability concerns. The outcome of India’s response to the crisis will have profound repercussions for the geopolitical landscape of the region.
The ousting of Sheikh Hasina as Bangladesh’s Prime Minister has presented India with a multidimensional diplomatic quandary.
The need to forge relationships with the new leadership in Dhaka, manage potential refugee influx, and navigate regional dynamics will demand a judicious and deft approach from Indian policymakers.
India’s response to the crisis in Bangladesh will undoubtedly shape its standing in the region and its relations with key neighbouring countries.
A big challenge staring India in the face is the geopolitical ramifications of the Dhaka turmoil. With Bangladesh slipping out of the control of Awami League, India is watching who takes over. Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP may be more aligned to China, and Beijing would leave no opportunity to fish in troubled waters. This is not good news for India’s strategic outlook in the region. The past few years have seen unrest in India’s neighbourhood, whether it is Sri Lanka or Myanmar or Afghanistan and now Bangladesh. China and Pakistan have formed a bloc and new dispensation in some countries, the Maldives for example, have suggested that they are aligned more to this bloc than to New Delhi. In Afghanistan, the Taliban’s return scuttled India’s strong ties with the earlier government. Amid this, the boost in diplomatic relations with Dhaka was a silver lining, but that changed yesterday and India must now return to the drawing board to navigate this new crisis.
SURAJ BNANDREKAR
Editor, Goemkarponn
