El Niño Could Claim 55,000 Lives in India by March, Heat Mortality Tracker Warns

New Delhi: India could face around 55,000 additional heat related deaths between October and March as the effects of a powerful El Niño intensify, according to projections from the Climate Impact Lab’s El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker. The forecast places India among the countries expected to experience the heaviest toll from rising temperatures over the coming months.
The tracker estimates that more than 373,000 additional people worldwide could die from heat related causes during the six month period. The projected deaths are expected to be concentrated largely in developing countries, where exposure to extreme temperatures and limited access to cooling facilities can increase health risks.
India’s projected toll is expected to be concentrated towards the end of the forecast period, with March identified as the month likely to record the highest number of heat related deaths. Nigeria is projected to face a comparable toll of approximately 56,000 deaths.
Other countries expected to experience significant impacts include Indonesia, where around 29,000 heat related deaths are projected, and Brazil, with an estimated 19,000.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences global atmospheric circulation, affecting wind patterns, temperatures and rainfall across different regions. Its effects can contribute to droughts, floods and prolonged periods of extreme heat.
The current episode has drawn attention because of the unusually high ocean temperatures recorded during its development. Some experts have described the event as a potential Super El Niño, reflecting concerns about its intensity and possible worldwide consequences.
The phenomenon could also aggravate air pollution in Mumbai. Slower winds may reduce the movement of pollutants, allowing polluted air to remain over the city for longer periods.
El Niño events generally occur every two to seven years and last between nine and 12 months. Their effects vary across regions, depending on local weather conditions and other climate factors. The latest projections highlight the potential health risks associated with extreme heat and the importance of preparedness, particularly in vulnerable communities.
The mortality figures are projections rather than confirmed deaths, and the actual impact will depend on how temperatures and weather conditions develop in the coming months.