The INDI Alliance, consisting of three prominent parties – The Indian National Congress, the Goa Forward and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), besides others like the Trinamool Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party are fighting the Lok Sabha polls together in the State.
Interestingly, while only three parties have representation in the Goa Assembly – INC (3), AAP (2) and Goa Forward (1) other TMC and NCP failed miserably to make any impact in the State elections in 2022.
Looking at the statistics for 2022 it seems like the National Democratic Alliance of Bharatiya Janata Party, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party and the three independents, the alliance has a vote share of more than 46 per cent in 2022.
This excludes the vote share of the 8 MLAs who deserted the Congress to join the BJP. If this is included the NDA crosses a vote share of 58 per cent.
Of course, we know there has been lots of resentment among people and the votes of the 8 MLAs would not convert for the BJP.
The Statistics…
Following are the statistics available of 2022 Assembly Elections in Goa…
BJP – 33.31 %
INC – 23.46 %
MGP – 7.6 %
AAP – 6.77 %
AITC – 5.21 %
GFP – 1.84 %
NCP – 1.14 %
NOTA – 1.12 %
RGP & Ind – 19.37 %
SHS – 0.18 %
Now looking at these stats it seems like the NDA has 47.81 per cent of votes with BJP, MHGP and three independents while the INDI alliance has just 38.42 per cent of votes. The Revolutionary Goans Party has 10 per cent votes.
If the RGP fails to make an impact those votes will be transferred to the Congress, bringing both alliances on level playing ground.
However, another factor remains that the 8 MLAs who have shifted to BJP, if they can get at least 50 per cent votes for BJP, the saffron brigade will definitely cross the 55 per cent vote share.
BJP banking on RGP, Turncoats?
So while the BJP is hoping to keep the party’s vote share intact, it is keeping its fingers crossed that RGP takes the majority of votes so that it dents the Opposition unity. Also, the BJP wants votes from the turncoats, especially in South Goa.
While the BJP is expected to sail through in North Goa with Shripad Naik winning the seat for 6th time, it is facing a tough challenge in the South as Congress has nominated an ex-defence personnel, Viriato Fernandes.
Another factor is TMC, after the 2022 elections the TMC has lost its base miserably in Goa.
Hence their vote share of 5 per cent could swing both ways – BJP and Congress. Also, the TMC does not seem to be wholeheartedly with the INDI alliance as there is no alliance in Bengal.
So which way this 5 percent will vote is also an important factor.
