AERIAL VIEW
Agreed, it would be a hung assembly, but the numbers are shocking and imaginary. It is a surprise to know TMC and MGP getting just two seats.
Not much can be said about TMC, but the MGP at least have four winning seats in Sudin Dhavalikar, Jit Arolkar, Ketan Bhatikar and Deepak Dhavalikar. Similarly, Kiran Kandolkar and Kavita Kandolkar are winning seats for TMC.
Another factor the pollsters have underestimated is AAP.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will surely get more seats than the TMC in Goa. AAP candidates are favourites to win in Shiroda, Cortalim, Benaulim, Navelim, Velim and Curtorim.
So now the question that arises is how reliable are these exit polls.
SURAJ NANDREKAR
Editor, Goemkarponn
As expected, the Exit Polls have predicted a hung assembly once again in Goa, with most pollsters across the country giving a thumbs up to BJP once again in Goa.
The Exit polls have predicted 16 seats for BJP and 16 seats for Congress, while Trinamool plus would get two seats and others six.
So this means Congress and Goa Forward will get 16 seats, and TMC and MGP alliance would get just three and sex others while BJP, which has no alliance partners, would get 16 seats and become the single largest party.
Agreed, it would be a hung assembly, but the numbers are shocking and imaginary. It is a surprise to know TMC and MGP getting just two seats.
Not much can be said about TMC, but the MGP at least have four winning seats in Sudin Dhavalikar, Jit Arolkar, Ketan Bhatikar and Deepak Dhavalikar. Similarly, Kiran Kandolkar and Kavita Kandolkar are winning seats for TMC.
Another factor the pollsters have underestimated is AAP.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will surely get more seats than the TMC in Goa. AAP candidates are favourites to win in Shiroda, Cortalim, Benaulim, Navelim, Velim and Curtorim.
So now the question that arises is how reliable are these exit polls.
The reliability of exit polls depends on several factors —sample size, geographical coverage and voters’ statements.
Usually, it’s easy to predict the voters’ mood when they exercise their franchise in clusters. However, pollsters get the numbers wrong when a section of people refuses to show their leanings. Thus, sometimes these post-poll surveys are right, and in several instances, they had mispredicted the verdict of an election.
In Goa, the BJP is facing a solid anti-incumbency factor. The BJP has been in power for 10 years, and it is but natural that the anti-incumbency sinks in after such a long period of time.
Many factors like the three-linear projects, COVID19 mismanagement, Goa becoming a coal hub, corruption charges, etc. have affected the BJP.
Hence, it is hard to digest the BJP would get 16 seats.
On the other hand, Congress has peaked at the right time. GPCC President Girish Chodankar and AICC in-charge Dinesh Gundu Rao made some smart moves at the fag end of campaigning, which changed the scenario for the grand old party. From just one seat, Congress is now looking at forming the government on its own. But is this practically possible? Only time will tell.
Now that the pollsters have predicted a hung assembly, we have to believe that the horse-trading will begin soon after 12 pm on March 10 when the results are out.
Not just MGP, the independents will play a crucial role in forming the next government.
We will see Nitin Gadkari, Narendra Modi’s Man Friday, land up in Goa again on March 10 and do what he does the best – purchase MLAs.
Of Course, he has an excellent relationship with MGP’s Sudin Dhavalikar. So if BJP gets 16 seats, do not be surprised if Dhavalikar’s loyalty tilts towards BJP.
Similarly, Laxmikant Parsekar, Aleixo Reginald Lourenco, Utpal Parrikar etc, finally may all land up supporting the BJP.
However, Congress is now more active in 2022 after it was found napping in 2017 but not before the new entrant Michael Lobo shocked and woke them up from deep slumber by himself, flying to Delhi to meet senior AICC leaders to discuss government formation. The result was Congress rushing senior leader P Chidambaram to Goa to plan strategy.
So if Congress and BJp get similar seats, the battle would be between Gadkari and P Chidambaram, and the winners would be the ones who can hold nerves and makes the right moves and compromises.