AERIAL VIEW
Consider this, in 2012, Goa registered an 83 per cent voter turnout, the highest so far, which dethroned the Digambar Kamat led Congress government in State. BJP got an absolute majority with 21 seats. This was after the huge alleged mining scam.
Second, in 2017, the voter turnout was 81.97 per cent, and the wave was against the incumbent BJP, which was reduced to just 13 seats from 21. Congress was the single largest party but stole people’s mandate through backdoor politics.
Now again, in 2022, the odds are against the BJP for dozens and dozens of reasons for stealing people’s mandate of 2022, for engineering wholesale defections in Opposition parties, the three linear projects, making Goa a coal hub, Mhadei diversion, mining closure, casinos, corruption, mismanagement in COVID19 handling which led to the loss of thousands of innocent lives etc.
SURAJ NANDREKAR
Editor, Goemkarponn
If the high voter turnout in Goa is any indication, things are going as planned for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party.
Over the years, a widely-held belief has taken root among India’s election analysts that increasing voter turnout is inherently bad news for incumbents. While the origins of this received wisdom are unclear, it is repeated ad nauseam nearly every election cycle. Proponents of this view argue that positive turnout growth—that is, an increase in voter turnout in the current election relative to the previous election—signals that an angry electorate is in the mood for change.
Therefore, rising turnout is an early indicator of trouble for the sitting government.
The argument is that anti-incumbency, which usually manifests as anger among voters, encourages more people to cast votes.
It is not that straightforward. High voter turnout could also reflect a strong pro-incumbency sentiment; when voters feel strongly in favour of the incumbent government, they like to come out in large numbers and express their support.
Consider this, in 2012, Goa registered an 83 per cent voter turnout, the highest so far, which dethroned the Digambar Kamat led Congress government in State. BJP got an absolute majority with 21 seats. This was after the huge alleged mining scam.
Second, in 2017, the voter turnout was 81.97 per cent, and the wave was against the incumbent BJP, which was reduced to just 13 seats from 21. Congress was the single largest party but stole people’s mandate through backdoor politics.
Now again, in 2022, the odds are against the BJP for dozens and dozens of reasons for stealing people’s mandate of 2022, for engineering wholesale defections in Opposition parties, the three linear projects, making Goa a coal hub, Mhadei diversion, mining closure, casinos, corruption, mismanagement in COVID19 handling which led to the loss of thousands of innocent lives etc.
So the near-80 per cent turnout is surely not the situation to be elated for the BJP, which has had to settle a lot of internal disputes too due to anti-cadre decisions.
A layman and the cadres were unhappy with the BJP decision to give families tickets denying ticket to Utpal Parrikar to keep Babush Monseratte happy.
But the BJP, despite knowing the people’s pulse, seems to be in denial mode, and Chief Minister Dr Pramod Sawant, who seems to be over-optimistic, continues his rhetoric of 22+ in 2022 and “Bhivpachi garaz na”.
Forget 22; the analysis of voter turnout and people’s pulse seems like no party would get an absolute majority.
For BJP, the CM and the State president Sadanand Shet Tanavade is still under the impression that if they could win the Zilla Parishad elections and the municipal elections despite the protests and agitation against coal, three-linear projects and CAA, then why not the Assembly polls?
But the BJP has conveniently ignored that ZP and municipalities, people vote for the individuals and not any political parties.
So even though people voted for BJP in local elections, the Assembly elections is a different ball game and there is no assurance vote BJP kuch dile gele vaitale…
Nhu re?