NEW DELHI:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday stuck to its first forecast and reiterated that this year’s Southwest monsoon would see “above normal” rainfall, but warned that it will be a hot and humid June in northwest India (including Delhi), with the humidity making it worse than the ongoing heatwave in the region.
But overall, monsoon rainfall is expected to be “above normal” at 106% of long period average with a model error of +/-4%, the weather office said in its second Long Range Forecast of the Southwest monsoon. It said the same in its first LRF on April 15.
The forecast is good news because the Southwest monsoon delivers nearly 70% of India’s rain and is the lifeblood of its economy. As much as 51% of India’s farmed area accounting for 40% of production is rain-fed and 47% of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood.
Consistent and moderate amounts of rain — as opposed to heavy or very heavy rainfall days — is thus crucial for the country’s agriculture and rural sector. Good rains can help keep prices of staples such as sugar, pulses, rice and vegetables under control, in turn restraining the sticky inflation problem.
Conditions will become favourable for advance of monsoon into some more parts of south Arabian Sea, some parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, some more parts of Bay of Bengal and some parts of northeastern states over the next five days, IMD added. It had previously predicted the onset of the monsoon over Kerala on May 31. In Monday’s forecast, the department did not issue any updates about the date of onset.
There is a 32% probability that monsoon will be above normal (105 to 110% of Long Period Average or LPA) and a 29% probability that monsoon rainfall will be excess (over 110% of LPA), IMD said. There is 31% probability that monsoon will be normal (96 to 104%) and only 8% probability that it will be below normal (90 to 95%) and 2% probability of deficient rains ( below 90% of LPA). LPA for the season as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87cm.
There is likely to be normal rainfall over northwest India (92 to 108% of LPA); below normal rain over east and northeast India (less than 94% of LPA); above normal rainfall over central India (106% of LPA); and above normal rainfall over peninsular India (106% of LPA).
Most importantly, the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rain-fed agriculture areas in the country is expected to record above normal rain (106%) of LPA.
“We are sticking to our earlier forecast of above normal rain and there is a very good confidence around 61% probability that monsoon will be above normal or excess. So we can expect good rains this year,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
Last year’s monsoon was “below normal” with rainfall at 94.4% of LPA.
Hot, humid June over NW India with below normal rainfall
Normal to above normal temperatures are likely over most parts of the country in June with significantly above normal temperatures over all of northwest India, IMD warned on Monday. Below normal temperatures are likely over some parts of southern and peninsular India.
