New Delhi: A rapidly strengthening El Nino is raising concerns among climate experts, with global climate agencies warning that the event could reach the strong category later this year and potentially become one of the most intense on record.
Observational data and climate model projections indicate a substantial increase in ocean heat across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The warming is being accompanied by atmospheric circulation patterns typically associated with a developing El Nino.
Forecasts suggest that the event could reach peak intensity around November and December 2026, although its exact strength will become clearer as the system progresses. Current assessments indicate a high probability of the event reaching very strong levels during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter.
Experts have pointed to the unusually rapid pace of warming during the summer as a significant warning sign. The event is expected to strengthen through the coming months, with its influence potentially continuing into early 2027.
For India, the developing El Nino could have implications for the latter stages of the monsoon. Weather experts have warned of an increased risk of weaker rainfall during September and October, while changes in atmospheric circulation over the western Pacific could influence monsoon winds over the Bay of Bengal.
A strong El Nino can significantly alter weather patterns worldwide. Parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia could face increased risks of dry conditions and prolonged rainfall deficits. At the same time, several regions of Africa, North America, South America and Europe could experience heavier rainfall, storms and flooding.
The rapid strengthening of the event has increased the need for early preparation. Governments and communities are being urged to use seasonal forecasts and early warning systems to prepare for possible disruptions to agriculture, water resources, infrastructure and disaster management.
With the peak still months away, experts stress that the coming period will be crucial for determining how severe the 2026 El Nino ultimately becomes.
