New Delhi: India is heading towards its driest monsoon in 17 years as strengthening El Niño conditions weigh on rainfall, raising concerns over agricultural output and food prices.
Cumulative rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is currently 15% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department. If the deficit remains at this level, the country could record its weakest monsoon since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal.
The current shortfall is also significantly worse than the 10% deficit forecast by the weather department in May.
A possible tropical cyclone developing over the Bay of Bengal during the final week of September could bring additional rainfall to parts of eastern and northeastern India. However, weather analysts expect the system to have only a limited impact on the overall national rainfall deficit.
With less than two weeks remaining in the monsoon season, specialist forecasting models indicate a significant possibility that rainfall will finish between 10% and 20% below normal.
The monsoon is critical to India’s agricultural economy, with hundreds of millions of farmers relying on seasonal rainfall to irrigate their fields. India is among the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, while the monsoon provides most of the country’s annual rainfall.
A prolonged rainfall shortage could affect both the ongoing harvest and planting for the next crop cycle. Rice, sugarcane and corn sowing is already trailing last year’s levels.
Food Inflation Adds To Concerns
The weak monsoon comes as food prices continue to rise. Food inflation increased for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 5.95% in August, its highest level of the year.
Economists estimate that every one percentage point decline in rainfall from normal levels typically adds around 25 basis points to food inflation.
The government has already taken steps to improve supplies and contain prices, including allowing duty-free sugar imports and selling onions at subsidised prices in several states.
