Team Goemkarponn
PANAJI: Goa is experiencing one of its weakest monsoon starts in over a decade, with the State recording a rainfall deficit of nearly 70 per cent by mid-June, raising concerns over agriculture, water resources and overall monsoon performance.
Data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Goa Centre, shows that only about 160-166 mm of rainfall was recorded between June 1 and June 20, against the normal average of more than 500 mm for the period. The shortfall places 2026 among the driest June seasons recorded in the State since 2010 and makes it the second-worst year in terms of rainfall deficiency during the first 20 days of June.
According to IMD officials, the delayed strengthening of the monsoon after its onset on June 5 has been the primary reason behind the unusually low rainfall. Despite the monsoon arriving on schedule, persistent dry north-westerly winds have weakened the moisture-bearing monsoon currents, preventing widespread rain activity across Goa.
IMD Goa Centre Head Nahush Kulkarni said the prevailing atmospheric conditions have restricted the intensity of the monsoon over the region. He noted that a similar situation had been observed in 2013, when rainfall remained significantly below normal during the early part of the season before recovering later.
The situation has been further influenced by global climatic factors, including evolving El Niño conditions, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), all of which play a crucial role in determining the strength and behaviour of the southwest monsoon.
While the current figures have triggered concern, weather officials remain optimistic about an improvement in the coming days. The IMD has forecast a gradual increase in rainfall activity from June 22 onwards, with light to moderate showers expected across the State and isolated locations likely to receive heavy rainfall.
Meteorologists believe the final ten days of June will be crucial in determining whether Goa can substantially reduce its rainfall deficit before the month ends. A similar recovery was witnessed in 2023 when a severe shortfall recorded by June 20 narrowed following increased rainfall later in the month.
The prolonged dry spell has already begun affecting agricultural operations in several parts of the State, with farmers awaiting sustained rainfall to commence large-scale sowing activities. Water resource managers are also closely monitoring reservoir levels and rainfall trends as concerns grow over the impact of a prolonged deficit.
With forecasts indicating improved monsoon conditions after June 22, farmers and government agencies alike will be hoping for a strong revival of rainfall to ease concerns and restore confidence in the season ahead.
