New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department has introduced a new artificial intelligence based forecasting system that will provide highly localised monsoon alerts and rainfall predictions across 16 states ahead of the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
The advanced system, developed in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, is designed to offer block level forecasts to help farmers make better decisions regarding sowing and crop planning.
Officials said the system has already completed two successful trial runs and will now be used operationally during the four month monsoon season, which usually begins over Kerala in June and spreads across the country by early July.
Unlike conventional forecasting methods that mainly track the monsoon’s progress at a broader regional scale, the new AI powered model will provide district and sub district level updates on monsoon advancement. The first phase of the rollout will cover 15 states and one Union Territory located within the country’s core monsoon zone, where the department has reported encouraging results.
The forecasting model combines numerical weather prediction systems with AI driven data analysis to generate probabilistic forecasts for up to four weeks in advance. Nearly 3,067 sub districts across the selected states are expected to benefit from the service.
The weather department has also announced a separate high resolution rainfall forecasting initiative for Uttar Pradesh. The new AI system there will provide forecasts with a resolution as fine as one kilometre and up to ten days in advance.
According to officials, the model uses data collected from weather stations, Doppler radars, satellites and existing weather prediction systems before applying AI based downscaling techniques to generate far more localised forecasts. Current national forecasting systems typically operate at resolutions between 12.5 kilometres and four kilometres.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, chief of the IMD, said the upgraded system would make hourly forecasts more useful for precision agriculture and local planning. Forecasts are expected to be shared in near real time through APIs and made available online.
Launching the new services, Jitendra Singh said the initiative marks a significant shift towards impact based and decision support forecasting at a time when climate change and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. He noted that the system would assist sectors including agriculture, water resources, urban planning, renewable energy and disaster management while helping farmers make more informed decisions during the monsoon season.
