New Delhi: Pakistan has projected a 22% shortfall in water availability for the 2026 to 2027 Kharif season, raising concerns over irrigation supplies and agricultural production as the Indus Waters Treaty remains in abeyance following the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack.
The projected deficit is expected to affect both Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan’s two major agricultural provinces. Official records indicate that the overall water shortage across the system has been estimated at 22%, highlighting the challenges facing the country as it prepares for the crucial crop growing season.
Pakistan has also recorded a 22% decline in water inflows during the 2026 Kharif season, according to the reported assessment. The reduced availability of water has intensified concerns over reservoir levels, river flows and the ability to meet agricultural demand.
India placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025. Since then, Pakistan has repeatedly raised the issue at international forums, accusing India of using water supplies as a means of pressure.
India has maintained a firm position linking the future of the treaty to Pakistan ending its support for terrorism. The dispute has added another layer of tension to relations between the two neighbouring countries.
Pakistani authorities have expressed particular concern over water availability in the Jhelum and Chenab river systems, which form an important part of the country’s irrigation network.
Reports of declining reservoir levels and uncertainty over river inflows have increased fears of an agricultural crisis. Authorities have also raised concerns about reduced supplies in the Chenab River, warning of potential difficulties in managing irrigation requirements.
Similar concerns emerged during the previous Kharif season, when Pakistan’s water authorities anticipated a shortage of up to 21%.
The potential consequences extend beyond irrigation, with water availability directly linked to Pakistan’s food security and rural economy. Punjab and Sindh account for a substantial share of the country’s irrigated agricultural production.
Around 90% of Pakistan’s agricultural production depends on the Indus Basin Irrigation System, making reliable river flows essential for crop cultivation.
The projected shortage therefore presents a significant challenge for Pakistan as it prepares for the next agricultural season, with water management and reservoir conditions likely to remain critical factors in determining the impact on farming and food supplies.
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